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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.20 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model