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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to PHI 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at BUF 46 for 28 yards (6-C.Schmidt).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP