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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 22

Buffalo Bills 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 2-D.Carpenter 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.75 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model