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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model