Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Buffalo Bills 10

(4:07) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to BUF 38, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.79 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model