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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 2-D.Carpenter 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.53 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model