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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to PHI 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 39 for 5 yards (81-M.Easley).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model