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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 90

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to BUF 38, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-M.Thigpen MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 38, RECOVERED by PHI-56-B.Braman at BUF 37. 56-B.Braman to BUF 37 for no gain (36-J.Meeks).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.87 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 90, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model