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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to PHI 4, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP