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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 52

New York Giants 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to NYJ 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.26 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model