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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 36

New York Jets 13 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle to NYG 21 for 15 yards (21-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP