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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Giants 20 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to NYJ 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 87-E.Decker.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.09 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP