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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 4

New York Giants 20 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(8:50) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 82-R.Randle INTERCEPTED by 45-R.Miles at NYJ 3. 45-R.Miles to NYJ 14 for 11 yards (68-B.Hart).

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model