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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 65

New York Giants 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to NYJ 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-28-J.Hosley.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.88 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model