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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 17

New York Giants 17 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(:34) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.47 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model