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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 70

New York Jets 10 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to NYG 33, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.38 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model