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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Giants 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 3-J.Brown 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +0.92 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP