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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 62

New York Giants 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to NYJ 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-J.Kerley MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 19. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 18 for -1 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). Officially, a punt for 43 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model