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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 42 – Jacksonville Jaguars 39

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to JAX 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model