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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to JAX 29, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-R.Greene to JAX 43 for 14 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.15 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model