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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(12:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 36 for 4 yards (52-S.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model