Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 80

Houston Texans 21 – Buffalo Bills 27

(1:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short right to 18-C.Shorts III (37-N.Robey) [20-C.Graham]. Receiver at HOU 30, coverage at HOU 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP