Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 90

Houston Texans 21 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to BUF 45, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at HOU 13 for 42 yards (40-K.Drummond). Return credited to BUF 45 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-33-R.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.55 EP
56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 90, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model