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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 21 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to HOU 6, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model