Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 81

Houston Texans 21 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to BUF 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 40 for 16 yards (53-M.Bullough). PENALTY on HOU-28-A.Blue, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model