Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 21 – Houston Texans 13

(12:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 64 yards to HOU 17, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-33-R.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.39 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model