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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 21 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(:36) 2-D.Carpenter 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model