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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 44

Houston Texans 13 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model