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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 49

Houston Texans 13 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to BUF 5, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.94 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model