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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 21 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to HOU 32, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-81-M.Easley.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP