Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to BUF 42, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James. PENALTY on HOU-31-C.James, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.20 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model