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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 14 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to HOU 40, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model