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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 53

Houston Texans 6 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 39 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen. PENALTY on HOU-28-A.Blue, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.48 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -3.17 EP
KICK -2.16 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model