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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 80

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to DAL 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 41 for 11 yards (51-W.Compton; 20-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.32 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model