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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 90

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at DAL 45 for 15 yards (84-J.Hanna). PENALTY on WAS-59-C.Fields, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 47.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.05 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 47, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model