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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(:14) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.25 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model