Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-D.Jackson to WAS 9 for -7 yards (38-J.Heath). FUMBLES (38-J.Heath), RECOVERED by DAL-6-C.Jones at WAS 15. 6-C.Jones to WAS 15 for no gain (11-D.Jackson). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.91 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -2.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model