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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 68

Washington Commanders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 32 for 4 yards (35-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model