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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 2

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 5-D.Bailey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP