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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 25

Washington Commanders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model