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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 28

Washington Commanders 6 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.42 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model