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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP