4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 18

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.12 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model