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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 15 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.14 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.05 EP