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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model