Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 15 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(9:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 58 yards to BAL 28, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-42-S.Paysinger.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.19 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model