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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(10:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model