Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 87

Miami Dolphins 15 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(1:42) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to BAL 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 81-K.Clay to BAL 40 for 12 yards (36-T.Lippett).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.99 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 87, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model