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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 15 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 27 yards to BAL 35, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.25 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model