Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(8:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for no gain (50-A.McClellan). PENALTY on MIA-36-T.Lippett, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 30.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.87 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model